The weekly letter
News
Every week: the bot's real numbers and a plain-English read of what moved crypto. Free editions are open; the full PRO edition is for members.
The $60K Floor, the Zcash Timebomb, and the Leverage That Was Always There
Bitcoin dropped from above $73k to $60,781 — down 21% since May 15 — as a 13-day ETF outflow streak totaling $4.4 billion , Strategy's BTC sale, and oil-driven macro pressure converged. ETH fell 9.7% to $1,600 . Zcash im…
Read the free edition →The Liquidity War
The week's connective tissue isn't any single headline — it's a liquidity squeeze hitting from three directions at once: a landmark IPO pulling capital out of crypto rails, ETF outflows that have now hit $2.1B in June al…
Read the free edition →A 90% win rate can be a losing strategy.
Start with the concept. Win rate is simply the fraction of trades or bets that close in your favor. It feels like the natural scorecard — more wins, better trader. But a trade has two dimensions, not one: how often you w…
Read the free edition →The Floor Nobody Wants to Test
A hawkish Fed debut from Chair Kevin Warsh pushed rate-hike odds to near 40% for July , and crypto had no answer. Bitcoin slid toward $63k , ETH stalled below $1,706 , and Fear & Greed cratered to 14 — Extreme Fear .…
Read the free edition →The number that tells you whether you survived isn't your return — it's how far down you went before you got it.
Drawdown is the peak-to-trough decline in a portfolio's value before a new high is reached. If your account grows from $10,000 to $14,000 and then falls to $8,400 before recovering, your maximum drawdown is 40% — measure…
Read the free edition →The Floor That Wasn't
Bitcoin touched $58,000 this week — its lowest print in 21 months — as hot PCE inflation data stoked Fed rate fears, spot ETF outflows extended to a six-day streak , and a $10.6 billion options expiry loomed over Friday.…
Read the free edition →The footing is shaky, but the bids are real.
Bitcoin slid to a 21-month low then clawed back above $62,000 , carried by soft U.S. jobs data that pushed rate-hike bets lower and a single day of ETF inflows — $221.7 million — that snapped a 10-session outflow streak …
Read the free edition →Two weeks of calm water does not tell you how a boat handles a storm.
The concept is called single-regime sampling , and it is simpler than it sounds. A financial market does not behave the same way all the time. It trends upward, it grinds downward, and it chops sideways with no convictio…
Read the free edition →The Regulatory Stack Is Being Rebuilt, From the OCC Down
Circle's OCC approval for a national trust bank landed this week as the most structurally significant regulatory event in stablecoins since USDC launched. Simultaneously, the CLARITY Act got a new draft with $189M in lob…
Read the free edition →The more you tune, the worse it gets.
Overfitting means training a model so closely to past data that it learns the noise instead of the signal. The model gets very good at explaining what already happened and very bad at handling anything new. Most people a…
Read the free edition →The Wall Street bid lands, long-term holders bleed, and the macro cuts both ways.
Bitcoin spent the week trapped between two gravitational forces: institutional money arriving through the front door and long-term holders quietly leaving through the back. BTC touched local highs before Iran-driven risk…
Read the free edition →Getting paid to do nothing is the most dangerous feeling in trading.
Start with the mechanics. In a perpetual futures market, there is no expiry date, so the exchange uses a periodic cash transfer — the funding rate — to keep the perpetual price anchored to spot. When the market is net lo…
Read the free edition →The traders most likely to blow up aren't the reckless ones — they're the ones who thought moderate leverage was safe.
Start with the mechanic before anything else. Leverage is the ratio of your notional position size to the capital backing it. At 2x leverage , a 50% adverse move wipes you out. At 5x , it's a 20% move. At ~1x — where you…
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